Mortgage Security not That Costly
Filed Under (Mortgage) by admin on 17-09-2009
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Forget everything you thought you knew about the benefits of taking a variable-rate mortgage instead of locking in for the long term.
A new study suggests the security of a five-year mortgage costs little or nothing beyond a riskier variable-rate mortgage, providing you get a jumbo-sized rate discount.
“Interest costs on discounted closed five-year mortgages have been close to, and often lower than, those of variable-rate mortgages since late 1996,” senior Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. economist Ali Manouchehri writes in the study.
Homeowners have made variable-rate mortgages hugely popular in the past few years in the belief that you can save on interest costs by pegging your mortgage rate to your lender’s prime lending rate. As the prime rises, or as has generally happened in the past few years, fallen, so goes your mortgage rate.
The prime rate at the major banks is now 4.5 per cent, while the posted five-year rate at the big banks is 6.15 per cent. In just one year, the variable-rate choice would save you about $1,700 on monthly payments toward a $150,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years (assuming a level prime rate).
Historically, you would also have saved a lot. The CMHC study shows that five-year mortgages taken out from 1993 through 1998 would have cost anywhere from $50,000 to $5,000 in additional interest paid over the term of the loan (the example is based on a $100,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years).
The flaw with this analysis is that it doesn’t reflect real-world mortgage pricing. These days, very few people take out a mortgage without a sizable discount off the posted rates at major banks.
For that reason, the CMHC’s Mr. Manouchehri decided to compare discounted five-year mortgages with discounted variable-rate mortgages. Incidentally, five years is the most popular term by far for fixed-rate mortgages at about 59 per cent of the total.
The size of the discounts Mr. Manouchehri applied was based on the difference between posted major bank rates and the best deals available from other lenders. For five-year mortgages, he used a discount of 1.25 of a percentage point; for variable-rate mortgages, it was 0.4 of a point off prime.
For five-year mortgages taken out between 1993 and mid-1996, the five-year mortgage was costlier in terms of interest costs. Since then, however, variable-rate mortgages have generally been a little bit more expensive.
Obviously, there’s nothing in this study that decides the fixed-rate versus variable-rate debate once and for all.
In fact, the CMHC study may just confuse anyone who recalls some research done for Manulife Financial back in 2000 by York University finance professor Moshe Milevsky. His research found that the extra interest charged on a five-year mortgage would have cost $20,000 on average between 1950 and 2000 for a $100,000 mortgage amortized over 15 years.
To make some sense of the variable-rate versus five-year question, let’s go back to the CMHC study.
It shows that five-year mortgages, discounted or otherwise, were especially bad choices for a three-year period starting in mid-1993. Rates were high for a while back then, but they subsequently fell.
You were a spectator to these rate declines if you were stuck in a five-year mortgage, while people in variable-rate mortgages would have benefited almost immediately.
It’s a different world now, though. Five-year mortgage rates are close to a 50-year low, which suggests they’re far more likely to rise over their term than fall.
So what’s the best choice here, variable-rate or five-year fixed rate? People who want to pay rock-bottom mortgage rates for as long as possible will probably still want a variable-rate mortgage. Remember, you can lock this sort of mortgage into a fixed term without penalty in most cases.
The case for the five-year term looks almost as strong, though. First, the CMHC study tells us there may not be a significant cost to locking your mortgage in for five years, and you might even save a little over a variable-rate mortgage.
Second, the likelihood of higher rates in the years to come would suggest that this is a good time to lock in.
If you had a variable-rate mortgage discounted to 4 per cent, the prime would have to go up by 0.85 of a percentage point to equal the current five-year rate. That’s not a lot of ground to cover in the span of 12 to 18 months when the economy is doing well.
Arguably, the variable-rate versus fixed-rate debate is all about risks and rewards. Right now, the five-year option offers much less risk, and almost as much reward.
Watch the video related to mortgage
My Mortgage Bankers Speech from Nov 13th 2006 is now in one video clip. I gave this presentation at the the Western Regional Mortgage Bankers Conference in Las Vegas. There were over 2000 mortgage bankers in attendance. I also made similar comments when I addressed this conference a year earlier in 2005 at the height of the real estate bubble. For those people who said no one saw it coming, this presentation is a real eye opener. Let’s see if we can get this clip to go viral. Thanks to a …
Help answer the question about mortgage
What caused the home mortgage rates to sky rocket, causing people being unable to pay their monthly mortgages?The recession was caused by people being unable to pay back their home mortgages because the mortgage rates were too high?
Banks were not getting their money back from home owners, causing a credit crunch, thus they were unable to lend money to big businesses.
Big businesses then had to cut back on expenses and began to lay people off the the thousands.
So what caused the mortgage rates to go up so high that started this financial mess in the first place?
i recommend Thomas Sowells book – Basic Economics.
Excellent for everyone wanting to understand the workings of market based economy.
Does anybody know where to find Barry’s preceding argument? I’d love to compare them.
read on…
http://myfinancetimes.com/2008/05/24/subprime-mortgage-creditcrisis/
The above article elucidates you on the actual subprime mortgage crisis in us. and the persons behind the mortgage fraud and all those who are to be directly blamed for this financial catastrophe.
depends on your interest rate
lets say you did a 30 year 5% fixed
1825.19 would be your monthly
http://public.propertylinx.com/custom/templates/mortgage_calculator.asp?price=350000
here's a calculator.. toss around your own numbers.
Well its no coincidence that Ron Paul is a brilliant politician coz his economic adviser is guess who, none other than Peter Schiff. : )
When a senior lien forecloses, a junior lien is wiped out.
So if the first mortgage holder forecloses, the second trust deed goes away. If the second forecloses, you'll still owe the first.
Oftentimes, if a senior lien forecloses, the junior lien holder will send a representative to the auction to defend its interests by making sure the property goes for enough to pay the junior lien as well. Or they buy it themselves with the idea of reselling. Costs money, yes. But better than losing their whole investment.
i do not see any problem with you getting the refinance and i would not worry about the business end affected it!!!
@
GomersRevenge
rates will go up. Maybe it will take some time, but when inflation kicks in rates must go up.
Schiff didn’t predicted that FED and the government will so dumb that they will react the way they did. In the end it will be a disaster.
The problem with Obama was what you just stated, Americans liked what he said and admired him. Peter doesn’t want to be a career politician and isn’t qualified for that job. If you want the best President it is Ron Paul.
That depends on a few things.
How much equity do you have in your current home?
What is your credit score?
What is your debt load?
Yes you can get a 2nd mortgage on your current home to buy another, people do it all the time.
Your income must support maintaining your current home (you should be able to get a renter in there to offset the mortgage payment or some portion there of) and support your new mortgage.
You can get a loan with a BK. Many lenders require it to be discharged for 2 years, however, there are still a few lenders that will lend on a BK only being discharged 1 day.
In a nutshell, yes you can, if all your other ducks are in a row.
Good luck
creditreport.imess.net – try this service to boost you credit score before getting loan. After credit repair you can get the loan with minimal interest rate.
But if you are using your money in regards to information, timing is crucial. 2 years or 20, it is a big deal when this “forced” event takes place. So far, being a trade what you see and not what you think person, the smart money bet has been to buy dips in bonds (futures). When the rates actually do break out then it will be easy to adjust to the new reality.
Well I wouldn’t say that timing is crucial. The information that it will happen can save you a lot money. Sure it would be great if you could know WHEN it will happen, but IMO it is very hard to predict and I’m happy just to have the information that it will happen.
How could you not love this video. Clarity during the time everyone was in the fog. But the one feature that grabs my attention is when Peter predicts that interest rates would have to go up as well as many other people have.(eurodollar puts have been kaput) But the government is buying its own debt!! Rates are astonishingly low still. The craziness of government makes the prediction business quite difficult. I wish Peter would talk about this factor. Great video!
It is probably the 10th time I watch this speech.
I still laugh about Dr. Know nothing!
Peter should be our president!
He understands the problems!!!!
barney frank,chris dodd,ACORN,and all other democrats forcing banks to give loans to PEOPLE WHO COULD NEVER PAY THEM BACK..
Speak to your lender about a FHA 203K loan. The 203K loan is sometimes refererred to as a "rehab loan". With a 203K you can have the kitchen/bedroom remodel costs put into your initial loan. The rehab must have estimates up front and also must be done by an approved contractor.
The home must be able to be appraised at the completed price. For example:
Say the home is listed at $150,000 and has an old outdated kitchen and bathroom. Before making an offer you get estimates from an approved FHA203K contractor for remodeling the kitchen and bathroom. The estimates come in at $30,000.
An appraiser will then appraise the home as if the remodel has already been done. As long as the home appraises at $180,000 you will be able to get the loan.
A big advantage to doing it this way is you do not need to have that $30,000 in hand or need to borrow the money later at higher rates. The rehab is done right away so you do not have to live with the outdated kitchen/bathroom. Your monthly payment on the loan on 150K vs 180K should amount to around $180/month additional.
PMI protects the lender in case your loan goes into default. The only way to have it removed is when you owe less than 80% of your home's value.